Planes, trains and carbon emissions : a longitudinal quantitative-qualitative systems approach to the study of high-speed transportation transition towards sustainability

摘要

There is a propensity for socio-technical studies concerned with pathway development towards sustainability to describe, qualitatively, prospective transitions that are essentially concerned with quantitative objectives (e.g., mobility or electricity transition predicated on greenhouse gas emissions mitigation). While the socio- technical approach is powerfully equipped to examine the co-evolution of the social and technical aspects of the system with regard to the ‘who’ and ‘how’ parameters of the transition, only general assertions can be made as to the mitigation potential of the proposed niche technologies; that is to say, the ‘what’ parameter remains generic rather than specific. This deficiency poses a significant limitation to the resolution of transition policy recommendations, particularly given the critical importance for quantity certainty when developing greenhouse gas mitigation policies. Conversely, the quantitative assessment method of Life Cycle Assessment underplays the importance of the process of technical change, such as the effects of social arrangements and institutional alignments.The principal objective of this thesis is to expound a ‘systems’ approach for an integrated quantitative and qualitative prospective analysis of sustainability transitions. This is achieved through an inter-disciplinary conflation of the Life Cycle Assessment and the Socio-technical MLP frameworks, a strategy that acknowledges the interconnectedness of the societal and the technical aspects of transportation sustainability. The integrated methodology developed in this thesis synthesises these two frameworks in a way that helps overcome the limitations of each while also adding synergies that provide additional analytical capacity.The potential value of this integrated methodology is demonstrated through a case study application. The case study seeks to provide a strategic evaluation of the effect on life- cycle CO2 emissions of a technological transition from short-haul air travel to High-Speed Rail between Sydney and Melbourne, Australia during the period 2026 to 2056.