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Exaggerated risk: Prospect theory and probability weighting in risky choice

机译:夸大的风险:风险选择中的前景理论和概率加权

摘要

In 5 experiments, we studied precautionary decisions in which participants decided whether or not to buy insurance with specified cost against an undesirable event with specified probability and cost. We compared the risks taken for precautionary decisions with those taken for equivalent monetary gambles. Fitting these data to Tversky and Kahneman's (1992) prospect theory, we found that the weighting function required to model precautionary decisions differed from that required for monetary gambles. This result indicates a failure of the descriptive invariance axiom of expected utility theory. For precautionary decisions, people overweighted small, medium-sized, and moderately large probabilities-they exaggerated risks. This effect is not anticipated by prospect theory or experience-based decision research (Hertwig, Barron, Weber, & Erev, 2004). We found evidence that exaggerated risk is caused by the accessibility of events in memory: The weighting function varies as a function of the accessibility of events. This suggests that people's experiences of events leak into decisions even when risk information is explicitly provided. Our findings highlight a need to investigate how variation in decision content produces variation in preferences for risk.
机译:在5个实验中,我们研究了预防性决策,其中参与者决定是否针对具有指定概率和成本的不良事件购买具有指定成本的保险。我们将预防性决策所承担的风险与同等金钱赌博所承担的风险进行了比较。将这些数据与Tversky和Kahneman(1992)的前景理论进行拟合后,我们发现对预防性决策进行建模所需的加权函数与对金钱赌博的加权函数有所不同。该结果表明期望效用理论的描述不变性公理的失败。为了进行预防性决策,人们将小,中,中等大小的概率过重-他们夸大了风险。前景理论或基于经验的决策研究都无法预期这种效果(Hertwig,Barron,Weber和Erev,2004年)。我们发现证据表明,风险是由内存中事件的可访问性引起的:加权函数随事件的可访问性而变化。这表明,即使明确提供了风险信息,人们对事件的体验也会渗入决策。我们的发现强调需要研究决策内容的变化如何导致风险偏好的变化。

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