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Self-defeating austerity? Evidence from 1930s' Britain

机译:自-的紧缩政策? 1930年代英国的证据

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摘要

Self-defeating austerity entails “perverse effects” of fiscal consolidation such that fiscal indicators deteriorate. Inter alia, this depends on the size of the fiscal multiplier as Keynes (1933. The Means to Prosperity. London: Macmillan) underlined. We find that the government-expenditure multiplier was less than 1 in 1930s' Britain. Austerity was not self-defeating in the long run and even its initial impact probably did not raise the public debt-to-GDP ratio. In the later 1930s, there was a “fiscal free lunch” in that deficit-financed government spending would have improved public finances enough to pay for the interest on the extra debt.udud
机译:自-的紧缩政策带来了财政整顿的“有害影响”,从而使财政指标恶化。除其他外,这取决于财政乘数的大小,正如凯恩斯(1933年,《繁荣的手段》,伦敦:麦克米伦)所强调的那样。我们发现,在1930年代的英国,政府支出乘数小于1。从长远来看,紧缩并非是自败之举,即使其最初的影响也可能不会提高公共债务与GDP的比率。在1930年代后期,出现了“免费午餐”,因为赤字资助的政府支出将改善公共财政,足以支付额外债务的利息。

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