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Orbital Distribution of Minor Planets in the Inner Solar System and their Impact Fluxes on the Earth, the Moon and Mars

机译:内部太阳系中小行星的轨道分布及其对地球,月球和火星的影响通量

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摘要

The planet crossing asteroids in the inner solar system have strongly chaotic orbits and the distributions of their angular elements (longitude of ascending node, Ω; argument of perihelion, ω; and longitude of perihelion, ϖ) are often regarded as uniform random. In the last decade, the known population of these minor planets has increased by more than a factor of four, providing a sufficiently large dataset for statistical analysis of their distribution. By choosing the observationally complete set of bright objects, we quantified the level of intrinsic non-uniformities of the angular elements for the following dynamical subgroups of Near Earth Objects (NEOs) and Mars Crossing Objects (MCOs): three subgroups of NEOs (Atens, Apollos, and Amors) and two inclination subgroups of MCOs (high and low inclination MCOs, with the boundary at inclination of 15°). Using the methods of angular statistics, we found several statistically significant departures from uniform random angular distributions. We were able to link most of them with the effects of secular planetary perturbations. The distribution of the longitude of ascending node, Ω, for NEOs is slightly enhanced near the ascending node of Jupiter due to the secularly forced inclination vector. Apollos and high inclination MCOs have axial enhancement of ω due to secular dynamics associated with inclination-eccentricity-ω coupling; these enhancements show opposite trends in these two subgroups. The ϖ distributions of Amors and of MCOs are peaked towards the secularly forced eccentricity vector, close to the ϖ value of Jupiter. These non-uniform distributions of the angular elements may affect the asteroidal impact fluxes on the planets. We developed a new approach that accounts for the non-uniform angular elements of planet crossing asteroids to investigate the impact flux and its seasonal variation on the Earth, the Moon, and Mars. The calculation for this study was achieved by generating many clones of the observationally complete subset of bright planet-crossing objects, measuring the Minimum Orbit Intersection Distance (MOID) between the planet and the clones, and making use of the classical formulation of Wetherill (1967) for the collision probability of two objects on independent Keplerian orbits. We developed a novel method to calculate the collision probability for near-tangential encounters; this resolves a singularity in the Wetherill formulation. The impact flux of NEOs on the Earth-Moon system is found to be not affected significantly by the non-uniform distribution of angular elements of NEOs. The impact flux on Mars, however, is found to be reduced by a factor of about 2 compared to the flux that would obtain from the assumption of uniform random distributions of the angular elements of MCOs. Moreover, the impact flux on Mars has a strong seasonal variation, with a peak when the planet is near aphelion. We found that the amplitude of this seasonal variation is a factor of 4-5 times smaller compared to what would be obtained with a uniform random distribution of the angular elements of MCOs. We calculate that the aphelion impact flux on Mars is about three times larger than its perihelion impact flux. We also calculate the current Mars/Moon impact flux ratio as 2.9-5.0 for kilometer size projectiles.
机译:内部太阳系中穿越小行星的行星具有强烈的混沌轨道,并且其角元素的分布(上升节点的经度Ω,近日点的论点ω和近日点的经度ϖ)通常被视为均匀随机。在过去的十年中,这些小行星的已知数量增加了四倍以上,为统计分析它们的分布提供了足够大的数据集。通过选择观察对象完整的明亮物体组,我们对以下近地物体(NEO)和火星穿越物体(MCO)的动态子组的角度元素的固有不均匀程度进行了量化:NEO的三个子组(Atens, Apollos和Amors)和MCO的两个倾斜子组(高和低倾斜MCO,边界在15°倾斜)。使用角度统计方法,我们发现从统一的随机角度分布中有几个统计学上显着的偏差。我们能够将它们中的大多数与长期行星扰动联系起来。由于世俗强迫的倾斜矢量,NEO的上升节点经度Ω的分布在木星的上升节点附近略有增强。由于与倾斜度-偏心率-ω耦合相关的长期动力学,Apollos和高倾斜度的MCO具有ω的轴向增强。这些增强功能在这两个子组中显示出相反的趋势。 Amors和MCO的ϖ分布朝着长期受力的偏心向量达到峰值,接近木星的ϖ值。角度元素的这些不均匀分布可能会影响行星上的小行星撞击通量。我们开发了一种新方法,该方法解决了行星穿越小行星的非均匀角元素问题,以研究撞击通量及其在地球,月球和火星上的季节性变化。这项研究的计算是通过生成许多可观察到的明亮行星穿越物体子集的克隆,测量该行星与这些克隆之间的最小轨道相交距离(MOID)并利用经典的Wetherill(1967)来完成的)来确定两个物体在独立开普勒轨道上的碰撞概率。我们开发了一种新颖的方法来计算近切线相遇的碰撞概率;这解决了Wetherill公式中的奇异之处。发现近地天体对月球系统的冲击通量不受近地天体角元素非均匀分布的明显影响。然而,发现与火星上的冲击通量相比,从假设MCO的角度元素均匀随机分布中获得的通量减少了约2倍。此外,对火星的撞击通量具有强烈的季节变化,当行星靠近a头时会达到峰值。我们发现,与MCO的角度元素的均匀随机分布相比,这种季节性变化的幅度要小4-5倍。我们计算得出,火星上的顶号撞击通量大约是其近日点撞击通量的三倍。对于千米大小的弹丸,我们还计算出当前的火星/月球撞击通量比为2.9-5.0。

著录项

  • 作者

    JeongAhn (Chung) Youngmin;

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  • 年度 2015
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  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 en_US
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