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Ambiguity, precision, and choice: A fuzzy trace theory analysis of framing effects in decision-making under uncertainty.

机译:模糊性,准确性和选择性:不确定性下决策中框架效应的模糊跟踪理论分析。

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摘要

Framing effects are inconsistencies in preference across transformations in stimulus content. In this study, I present two experiments designed to test the descriptive power of two competing theories of cognitive aspects of framing effects in choice. Traditional explanations for framing effects, such as prospect theory, suggest that choice is a function of operations on numerical elements of risky stimuli. Cognition is presumed to be quantitative in nature, including diminishing returns for the values of outcomes and discounting of probabilities. In contrast, fuzzy trace theory, a relatively new conceptualization of cognition with very different assumptions than psychophysical approaches, suggests framing effects result from qualitative processing of decision components. Participants chose between certain and risky alternatives across a variety of reflection problems. Dependent variables in these experiments include choice, confidence in choice, a sensitive weighted measure called signed confidence, and response latency. Results of both experiments suggest failures of the psychophysical approach, and highlight successful predictions based on fuzzy trace theory. These predictions are based on four principles of the fuzzy trace theory intuitive approach to cognition: gist extraction, the hierarchy of gist, the fuzzy to verbatim continuum of memorial representations, and the fuzzy processing preference. The results tend to refute explanations of framing effects as being computationally and quantitatively driven and support explanations based on qualitative processing. Intuition, rather than human information processing, is an elegant description of decision making under uncertainty.
机译:框架效应是刺激内容转换过程中偏好的不一致。在这项研究中,我提出了两个实验,旨在测试两种对构架效应的认知理论在选择方面的描述能力。关于成帧效应的传统解释(例如前景理论)表明,选择是对风险刺激的数字元素进行运算的函数。假定认知本质上是量化的,包括结果价值的收益递减和概率折现。相比之下,模糊痕迹理论是一种相对较新的认知概念,其假设与心理物理方法截然不同,它表明框架效应是由决策组件的定性处理产生的。参加者在各种反思问题中选择了某些冒险的选择。这些实验中的因变量包括选择,选择置信度,称为带符号置信度的敏感加权量度和响应潜伏期。这两个实验的结果都暗示了心理物理方法的失败,并强调了基于模糊轨迹理论的成功预测。这些预测基于模糊痕迹理论直观认知方法的四个原则:要点提取,要点层次,纪念性表示形式的从模糊到逐字连续体以及模糊处理偏好。结果倾向于反驳对帧效应的解释,因为它们是受计算和定量驱动的,并支持基于定性处理的解释。直觉而不是人类信息处理是对不确定性下决策的一种优雅描述。

著录项

  • 作者

    Fulginiti John Vincent;

  • 作者单位
  • 年度 1995
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  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 en
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