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Money, Exchange Rate, Prices Links during Hyperinflationary Episodes in Developing Economies : Using Hsiao's approach to Granger non-causality test

机译:发展中国家恶性通货膨胀期间的货币,汇率,价格之间的联系:使用萧的格兰杰非因果关系检验方法

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摘要

The determination of the causal pattern among inflation, money growth, and exchange rate has important implications for policymakers regarding appropriate stabilization policies in developing economies. Using Congolese data where the pace of broad money growth and hyperinflation (23, 760% annual change) reached record levels in early 1990s, we use single-equation multivariate autoregressive models with the optimal lag selected using Hsiao’s approach to Granger causality. Results indicate feedback causality between inflation and money growth on one side, and unidirectional Granger causality from money growth to the exchange rate and from the exchange rate to inflation on the other. These results suggest that the over-riding goal of disinflation needs to be accomplished initially by exchange rate stabilization, followed by a direct inflation targeting.
机译:确定通货膨胀,货币增长和汇率之间的因果关系,对决策者在发展中国家制定适当的稳定政策方面具有重要意义。根据刚果的数据,在1990年代初,广义货币的增长和恶性通货膨胀的速度达到了创纪录的水平(23,年变化760%),我们使用了单方程多元自回归模型,并使用了萧萧的格兰杰因果关系方法选择了最优滞后。结果表明,一方面是通货膨胀与货币增长之间的反馈因果关系,另一方面是从货币增长到汇率,从汇率到通货膨胀的单向格兰杰因果关系。这些结果表明,通货紧缩的首要目标首先需要通过稳定汇率来实现,然后再直接瞄准通货膨胀。

著录项

  • 作者

    Jean-Claude Maswana;

  • 作者单位
  • 年度 2005
  • 总页数
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
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