Exchange Rate and Price: A Granger Causality Test of Consumer Price Index in China

摘要

The purpose of this study is to examine a causal relationship between changes in exchange rate and changes in price level measured by CPI (consumer price index) in China by applying Granger Causality test, in which three major trading partners of China are chosen: the United States representing North America, European Union representing Europe, and Japan representing Asia. The secondary data, collected from National Bureau of Statistics of China, are for the period of January 2005 to April 2011 that spans the present managed floating exchange-rate period. The results of this study show that there is the causal relationship from changes in exchange rate (US dollar and Japanese Yen to Chinese Yuan) to changes in consumer price index in China. However, there is no evidence showing the causal relationship from changes in consumer price index to changes in exchange rate.