Spillovers of Climate Policy - An assessment of theincidence of carbon leakage and induced technological change due to CO2 abatement measures

摘要

Besides primary effects such as reducing greenhouse gas emissions, theimplementation of climate policies in Annex I countries of the Kyotoprotocol may have secondary (side) effects, as the resulting increase incarbon or fossil fuel costs may affect energy prices and, hence, theprofitability of energy-using industries in Annex I versus non-Annex Icountries. From a global warming point of view, these secondary effectsor 'spillovers' of climate policy may be either negative or positive. Negative spillovers refer particularly to the incidence of carbonleakage, i.e. an increase in CO2 emissions in non-abating countries dueto the implementation of climate policy in Annex I countries. Positivespillovers, on the other hand, refer especially to the inducement ofcarbon-saving technological innovations and the diffusion of theseinnovations, both at home and abroad.The primary objective of thepresent report is to provide a summary assessment of the analytical andempirical knowledge on the potential incidence of spillovers due toclimate policy in Annex I countries of the Kyoto protocol. Thesespillovers include especially the prevalence of carbon leakage as well asthe induced innovation and diffusion of carbon-saving technologies inboth Annex I and non-Annex I countries. In addition, the report aims todraw lessons, conclusions and policy implications with regard to theopportunities and means to reduce potential negative spillovers ofclimate policy (i.e. 'carbon leakage') and to enhance its potentialpositive spillovers ('induced technological change').The present reportprovides first of all a conceptual framework, particularly on the terms'spillovers', 'carbon leakage' and 'induced technological change'. Subsequently, it presents the major findings of analytical model studieson the incidence of carbon leakage due to climate policy in Annex Icountries of the Kyoto protocol, followed by similar analytical findingson the incidence of induced technological spillovers. Next, it presentsthe major findings of the three empirical case studies on climate policyspillovers, particularly in the energy-intensive manufacturing industry,the wind power industry, and the biomass and bio-energy industry. Finally, it discusses the major policy implications of the project'Spillovers of climate policy'.