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Employing back casting principles for the formation of long term built asset management strategies - A theoretical approach

机译:采用倒推原则形成长期建造资产管理策略-一种理论方法

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摘要

Facilities managers have traditionally relied on forecasting approaches using the stock condition survey to predict maintenance and refurbishment needs against changing user requirements. However, the authors have previously shown that such an approach, whilstudeffective for short term planning, is unable to cope with the uncertainty and complex data sets required to develop long term plans (> 10 years), in particular the impact of future climate change (physical and legislative). This paper will present back casting as an alternative approachudto support long term built asset management planning.ududBackground: Back casting has been applied to sustainable transport management, energy planning and community climate change adaptation projects. The process in principle envisions a future state (end-point) set by stakeholders. Alternative ‘paths of approach’ are identified by looking backwards from the future state to the present. Each path is examined in turn to identify interventions (physical and/or operational) required in order for that path toudachieve the end-goal. The stakeholder’s review each path and select the most appropriate for achieving the desired (end-point). This path is then integrated into the facilities (built asset) management strategy.ududApproach: The researchers worked with various stakeholders as part of an action research team to identify climate change adaptations that may be required to ensure the continued performance of the building and integrate these into a 60 year facilities management plan.ududResults: The paper superimposes back casting theory onto the adaptation process and explains how the theory supported long term facilities management planning. The paper also explains how the approach was used to provide confidence for the building owner to invest in the planned refurbishment of their built asset to improve its future performance and sustainability.ududPractical implications: The paper demonstrates the application of this approach through a case study example of a newly constructed £75 m educational building. A similar approach could be applied to other building types.ududResearch limitations: This paper presents a theoretical model which needs to be validated using longitudinal data sets. Originality/value: This is the first paper to suggest the potential of back casting to inform long term built asset management strategies.ududOriginality/value: This is the first paper to suggest the potential of back casting to inform long term built asset management strategies.
机译:传统上,设施经理依赖于使用库存状况调查的预测方法来预测维护和翻新需求,以适应不断变化的用户需求。然而,作者先前已经表明,这种方法虽然对短期计划无效,但无法应对制定长期计划(> 10年)所需的不确定性和复杂数据集,尤其是未来气候的影响变化(物理和立法)。本文将介绍反向铸造作为替代方法 ud,以支持长期的已建资产管理计划。 ud ud背景:反向铸造已应用于可持续的运输管理,能源计划和社区气候变化适应项目。该过程原则上设想了利益相关者设定的未来状态(端点)。通过从未来状态到现在进行回顾,可以找到替代的“方法路径”。依次检查每条路径以识别所需的干预措施(物理和/或操作),以使该路径达到最终目标。利益相关者查看每条路径,并选择最适合实现所需(终点)的路径。然后将此路径整合到设施(建筑资产)管理策略中。并将结果整合到60年的设施管理计划中。 ud ud结果:本文将反推理论叠加到适应过程中,并解释了该理论如何支持长期设施管理计划。本文还解释了如何使用该方法为建筑物所有者提供信心,以投资于其建筑资产​​的计划翻新,以改善其未来的性能和可持续性。 ud ud新建7500万英镑教育大楼的案例研究。类似的方法可以应用于其他建筑类型。 ud ud研究局限性:本文提出了一种理论模型,需要使用纵向数据集进行验证。原创性/价值:这是第一篇提出反向铸造的潜力,以告知长期建造资产管理策略的文件。 ud ud原始资料/价值:这是第一篇提出反向铸造的信息,以告知长期建造资产的潜力管理策略。

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