Analysis of the Impact of Electric Vehicle Penetration on Italian Electric Supply System

摘要

Electric vehicles are progressively emerging in the light-duty passenger market as a promising alternative to oil-dependent road transport in the attempt to achieve greenhouse gas and pollutant emissions reduction. However, it is necessary to study in detail and to assess how a high penetration of electric vehicles in the private passenger vehicle fleet would affect strategic planning of large scale energy systems in the medium-long term period.ududThis study evaluates the integration of electric vehicles in the Italian energy scenario, assessing the impact on power generation capacity, energy consumption, CO2 emissions on a medium-long term perspective (up to 2030–2050), with the support of the EnergyPLAN software tool. ududThe national energy system has been accurately characterized using currently available data and its operation has been simulated with varying degrees of electric vehicle penetration through an integrated analysis method. The energy scenarios developed take into account realistic growth trends for variable renewable energy sources.ududThe results obtained assess the potential impact of electric vehicles in cutting transport carbon emissions and highlight potential sensible primary energy savings. Nevertheless, the analysis also reveals that an increase in electric vehicle penetration does not necessarily correlate directly to a growth in generation from renewable energy sources, because electric vehicle recharging strategies, and in particular the time of day when most vehicles are recharged, influence which power plants are mostly used to cover the additional electric energy needs.