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Effects of Seismogenic Faults on the Predictive Mapping of Probability to Earthquake-Triggered Landslides

机译:发震断裂对地震触发滑坡概率预测映射的影响

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摘要

The seismogenic fault is crucial for spatial prediction of co-seismic landslides, e.g., in logistic regression (LR) analysis considering influence factors. On one hand, earthquake-induced landslides are usually densely distributed along the seismogenic fau on the other hand, different sections of the seismogenic fault may have distinct landslide-triggering capabilities due to their different mechanical properties. However how the feature of a fault influence mapping of landslide occurrence probability remains unclear. Relying on the landslide data of the 2013 Lushan, China Mw 6.6 earthquake, this study attempted to further address this issue. We quantified the seismogenic fault effects on landslides into three modes: the distance effect, the different part effects, and the combined effects of the two. Four possible cases were taken into consideration: zoning the study area vertical and parallel to the fault (case 1), zoning the study area only vertical to the fault (case 2), zoning the study area only parallel to the fault (case 3), and without such study-area zonations (case 4). Using the LR model, predictive landslide probability maps were prepared on these four cases. The model also fully considered other influencing factors of earthquake landslides, including elevation, slope, aspect, topographic wetness index (TWI), peak ground acceleration (PGA), lithology, rainfall, distance from the epicenter, distance from the road, and distance from the river. Then, cross-comparisons and validations were conducted on these maps. For training datasets, results show that the success rates of earthquake-triggered landslides for the former three scenarios were 85.1%, 84.2%, and 84.7%, respectively, while that of the model for case 4 was only 84%. For testing datasets, the prediction rates of the four LRs were 84.45%, 83.46%, 84.22%, and 83.61%, respectively, as indicated by comparing the test dataset and the landslide probability map. This means that the effects of the seismogenic fault, which are represented by study-area zonations vertical and parallel to the fault proper, are significant to the predictive mapping of earthquake-induced landslides.
机译:张发发生故障对于共同地震山体滑坡的空间预测至关重要,例如,考虑到影响因素的逻辑回归(LR)分析。一方面,地震诱导的山体滑坡通常沿着地震断裂密度密集地分布;另一方面,由于其不同的机械性能,所发生的发生故障的不同部分可能具有不同的滑坡触发能力。然而,如何对滑坡发生概率的故障影响映射的特征仍不清楚。依靠2013年庐山的Landslide数据,中国MW 6.6地震,这项研究试图进一步解决这个问题。我们量化了对山体滑坡的发震断层效应分为三种模式:距离效应,不同的部分效应和两者的组合效果。考虑了四种可能的案例:分区研究区域垂直和平行于故障(案例1),分区研究区域仅垂直于故障(案例2),分区研究区域仅与故障平行(案例3) ,没有这样的研究区域区分(案例4)。使用LR模型,在这四种情况下准备了预测滑坡概率图。该模型还充分考虑了地震滑坡的其他影响因素,包括海拔,坡度,方面,地形湿度指数(TWI),峰接地加速(PGA),岩性,降雨,距离震中,距离路的距离,以及距离河流。然后,在这些地图上进行交叉比较和验证。对于培训数据集,结果表明,前三种情况的地震触发滑坡的成功率分别为85.1%,84.2%和84.7%,而案例4的模型仅为84%。对于测试数据集,通过比较测试数据集和滑坡概率图来表示,四LRS的预测率分别为84.45%,83.46%,84.22%和83.61%。这意味着由垂直和平行于故障正确的研究区区间表示的发震过错的影响对于地震诱导的滑坡预测映射是显着的。

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