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A Lagrangian analysis of a developing and non-developing disturbance observed during the PREDICT experiment

机译:拉格朗日分析PREDICT实验期间观察到的正在发生和未发生的干扰

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摘要

The problem of tropical cyclone formation requires among otherthings an improved understanding of recirculating flow regions onsub-synoptic scales in a time evolving flow with typically sparse real-timedata. This recirculation problem has previously been approached assuming as afirst approximation both a layer-wise two-dimensional and nearly steady flowin a co-moving frame with the parent tropical wave or disturbance. This paperprovides an introduction of Lagrangian techniques for locating flowboundaries that encompass regions of recirculation in time-dependent flowsthat relax the steady flow approximation.Lagrangian methods detect recirculating regions from time-dependent data andoffer a more complete methodology than the approximate steady framework. TheLagrangian reference frame follows particle trajectories so that flowboundaries which constrain particle transport can be viewed in aframe-independent setting. Finite-time Lagrangian scalar field methods fromdynamical systems theory offer a way to compute boundaries from grids ofparticles seeded in and near a disturbance.The methods are applied to both a developing and non-developing disturbanceobserved during the recent pre-depression investigation of cloud systems inthe tropics (PREDICT) experiment. The data for this analysis is derived fromglobal forecast model output that assimilated the dropsonde observations asthey were being collected by research aircraft. Since Lagrangian methodsrequire trajectory integrations, we address some practical issues of usingLagrangian methods in the tropical cyclogenesis problem. Lagrangiandiagnostics are used to evaluate the previously hypothesized import of dryair into ex-Gaston, which did not re-develop into a tropical cyclone, and theexclusion of dry air from pre-Karl, which did become a tropical cyclone andlater a major hurricane.
机译:除其他外,热带气旋形成的问题还需要进一步了解在通常情况下稀疏的实时数据随时间变化的流动中亚天气尺度上的循环流动区域。先前已经以与母热带波或扰动共同运动的框架中的层级二维流动和近乎稳定的流动作为第一近似来解决了这种再循环问题。本文介绍了用于定位流边界的拉格朗日技术的介绍,这些时间边界包含了随时间变化的流中的再循环区域,从而放松了稳定流的近似值。拉格朗日方法可以从随时间变化的数据中检测再循环区域,并且提供了一种比近似稳定框架更完整的方法。拉格朗日参考系遵循粒子轨迹,因此可以在独立于帧的设置中查看约束粒子传输的流边界。来自动力系统理论的有限时间拉格朗日标量场方法提供了一种方法,可以从扰动内和附近的粒子网格计算边界。该方法适用于最近在云系统中进行的低压前预研究中观察到的发展中和非发展中的扰动。热带(PREDICT)实验。用于此分析的数据来自全球预报模型输出,该输出将研究飞机正在收集的探空仪观测资料同化。由于拉格朗日方法需要轨迹积分,因此我们解决了在热带气旋发生问题中使用拉格朗日方法的一些实际问题。拉格朗日诊断法用于评估以前假设的干燥空气进入前加斯顿的进口,前加斯顿没有重新发展成热带气旋,而排除了卡尔前的干燥空气,卡尔-卡尔的确成为热带气旋,后来又成为主要的飓风。

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