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Basic Properties and Qualitative Dynamics of a Vector-Borne Disease Model with Vector Stages and Vertical Transmission

机译:矢量阶段和垂直传输的载体传播疾病模型的基本特性和定性动态

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摘要

This work systematically discusses basic properties and qualitative dynamics of vector-borne disease models, particularly those with vertical transmission in the vector population. Examples of disease include Dengue and Rift Valley fever which are endemic in Sub-Saharan Africa, and understanding of the dynamics underlying their transmission is central for providing critical informative indicators useful for guiding control strategies. Of particular interest is the applicability and derivation of relevant population and epidemic thresholds and their relationships with vertical infection. This study demonstrates how the failure of R0 derived using the next-generation method compounds itself when varying vertical transmission efficiency, and it shows that the host type reproductive number gives the correct R0. Further, novel relationships between the host type reproductive number, vertical infection, and ratio of female mosquitoes to host are established and discussed. Analytical results of the model with vector stages show that the quantities Q0, Q0v, and R0c, which represent the vector colonization threshold, the average number of female mosquitoes produced by a single infected mosquito, and effective reproductive number, respectively, provide threshold conditions that determine the establishment of the vector population and invasion of the disease. Numerical simulations are also conducted to confirm and extend the analytical results. The findings imply that while vertical infection increases the size of an epidemic, it reduces its duration, and control efforts aimed at reducing the critical thresholds Q0, Q0v, and R0c to below unity are viable control strategies.
机译:这项工作系统地讨论了载体传播疾病模型的基本性质和定性动态,特别是载体群体中具有垂直传输的基本性质和定性动态。疾病的例子包括撒哈拉以南非洲的特有的登革热和裂谷,并且了解其传播潜在的动态是提供有助于指导控制策略的批判性信息指标的核心。特别感兴趣的是相关人口和疫情阈值的适用性和推导以及与垂直感染的关系。该研究表明,在不同的垂直传输效率时,使用下一代方法的R0失败如何在变化垂直传输效率时,表明主体类型的生殖数字给出正确的R0。此外,建立和讨论了宿主类型生殖数,垂直感染和雌性蚊子与托管的母蚊虫比之间的新关系。具有矢量阶段的模型的分析结果表明,数量Q0,Q0V和R0C,其代表载体定植阈值,分别由单个感染的蚊子产生的雌性蚊子的平均数量,以及有效的生殖数,提供阈值条件确定载体种群的建立和疾病的侵袭。还进行了数值模拟以确认并扩展分析结果。该研究结果暗示,虽然垂直感染增加了流行病的尺寸,但它降低了其持续时间,并控制旨在减少临界阈值Q0,Q0V和R0C至以下统一的控制力是可行的控制策略。

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  • 作者

    Sansao A. Pedro;

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  • 年度 2018
  • 总页数
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
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