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Financial and operational hedging of exposure to foreign exchange risk: a GCC perspective

机译:外汇风险敞口的财务和运营对冲:海湾合作委员会的观点

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摘要

This thesis is concerned with the management of foreign-exchange risk. We take the perspective of a domestic firm that is exposed to foreign currencies (such as the GBP, CHF, and JPY) operating in a member country of the Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC). Three important questions are involved in hedging: (i) to hedge or not; (ii) the choice of the hedging instrument; and (iii) measurement of the hedge ratio. Our results show that there is no difference in performance and risk under these three hedging strategies (always to hedge, to hedge or not to hedge, and always not to hedge) for all of the GCC currencies against foreign currencies. Our examination of the effectiveness of three financial hedging techniques—forward hedging, money-market hedging and cross-currency hedging—shows that it makes no difference whether we use forward hedging or money-market hedging (for all of the GCC currencies against foreign currencies). However, in relation to cross-currency hedging, the results are mixed. We find that the effectiveness of cross-currency hedging depends on the correlation between the exchange rates of the base currency against the exposure currency, and the currency used as the hedging instrument. In examining the effectiveness of financial hedging (such as forward hedging) versus operational hedging, (such as risk-sharing arrangements, currency collars, and hybrid arrangements) we find that forward hedging is more effective than either risk-sharing arrangements or hybrid arrangements. However, when compared with currency collars, the results are mixed. Finally, we find that the use of different econometric models to estimate the hedge ratio fails either to add value or improve the effectiveness of the hedge. This implies that there is no need for a sophisticated econometric model to estimate the hedge ratio, because what matters is correlation.
机译:本文涉及外汇风险的管理。我们以一家在海湾合作委员会(GCC)成员国中经营有外国货币(例如英镑,瑞郎和日元)的国内公司为视角。套期保值涉及三个重要问题:(i)是否套期保值; (ii)选择对冲工具; (iii)对冲比率的计量。我们的结果表明,在所有三种GCC货币对外币汇率的三种对冲策略(始终对冲,对冲或不对冲,始终不对冲)下,绩效和风险没有差异。我们对三种金融套期技术的有效性进行了研究-前期套期,货币市场套期和交叉货币套期-显示我们使用远期套期还是货币市场套期(对于所有GCC货币兑外币而言)都没有区别)。但是,关于交叉货币对冲,结果好坏参半。我们发现,交叉货币对冲的有效性取决于基础货币对敞口货币的汇率与用作对冲工具的货币之间的相关性。在检查金融套期(例如远期套期)与运营套期(例如风险分担安排,货币项圈和混合安排)的有效性时,我们发现远期套期比风险分担安排或混合安排更为有效。但是,与货币项圈相比,结果好坏参半。最后,我们发现使用不同的计量经济学模型来估算套期保值比率无法增加价值或提高套期保值的有效性。这意味着不需要复杂的计量经济学模型来估算套期保值比率,因为重要的是相关性。

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