Mitigation Analysis for Hungary (Hungarian Country Study Team)

摘要

This paper describes options and measures for the different sectors of the211u001eHungarian national economy, which may assure that the country will be able to 211u001efulfil her duties undertaken by signing and ratifying the Framework Convention on 211u001eClimate Change (FCCC). These investigations were carried out in the framework of 211u001ethe U.S. Country Studies Program. The basic difficulty of the implementation of 211u001ethe FCCC in Hungary (and in any other countries with economies in transition) is 211u001ethat the country has to recover from a very deep economic recession and at the 211u001esame time the emissions of greenhouse gases should be stabilized. For this reason 211u001eArticle 4.6. of the FCCC allows for the countries with economies in transition to 211u001eselect a base level different from 1990, which is the recommended base year in 211u001egeneral. Hungary has chosen the yearly average emissions of the period 1985-1987 211u001eas a base level. Our investigations have proven that a temporary increase of the 211u001eemissions is unavoidable in the next couple of years, but if the different 211u001emitigation options are used, the emissions will not reach those of the base 211u001eperiod. However, mitigation requires a great amount of capital. It is expected 211u001ethat the country will need foreign support for the necessary investments and 211u001eprograms. In our study we focussed primarily on the energy and the forestry 211u001esector. In these sectors there are ongoing governmental programs, which can be 211u001econsidered as elements of the national mitigation strategy.