Evaluation of River Forecast Model Output for Simulations with and withoutQuantitative Precipitation Forecasts (QPF)

摘要

This report provides results of a study which compares the observed river stagesat five forecast points to corresponding forecast river stages. The forecasts were prepared with, and without, QPF input in order to evaluate the effect of the latter. The forecast river stages were derived by using the National Weather Service River Forecast System-Interactive Forecast Program (NWSRFS-IFP) which is used for forecast operations at the Arkansas-Red Basin River Forecast Center (ABRFC) in Tulsa, Oklahoma. The ABRFC archive data files for the time period April 1 to June 11, 1995 were used to create a data set of NWSRFS-IFP river forecast model output for daily simulations with and without Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts (QPF). These dual simulations were made for five 'headwater' basins: Chikaskia River above Corbin, Kansas (CBNK1); Whitewater River above Towanda, Kansas (TOWK1); Each Cache Creek above Walters, Oklahoma (WLTO2); Illinois River above Watts, Oklahoma (WTTO2); and Spring River above Waco, Missouri (WCOM7).