Assessing Inundation Hazards to Nuclear Powerplant Sites Using Geologically Extended Histories of Riverine Floods, Tsunamis, and Storm Surges.

摘要

Most nuclear powerplants in the United States are near rivers, large lakes, or oceans. As evident from the Fukushima Daiichi, Japan, disaster of 2011, these water bodies pose inundation threats. Geologic records can extend knowledge of rare hazards from flooding, storm surges, and tsunamis. This knowledge can aid in assessing the safety of critical structures such as dams and energy plants, for which even remotely possible hazards are pertinent. Quantitative analysis of inundation from geologic records perhaps is most developed for and applied to riverine flood hazards, but because of recent natural disasters, geologic investigations also are now used widely for understanding tsunami hazards and coastal storm surges. Layered sedimentary deposits commonly give the most complete geologic record of large floods, storm surges, and tsunamis. Sedimentary layers may be preserved for hundreds or thousands of years in suitable depositional environments, thereby providing an archive of rare, high-magnitude events. All inundation hazards discussed in this report—riverine floods, tsunamis, and storm surges—have had long records extracted from sedimentary sequences, many specifically for hazard assessment. Geologic records commonly are imprecise, so most hazard assessments benefit from evaluation of many sites and rigorous uncertainty assessment. Despite uncertainties, geologic records commonly can improve knowledge of the types and magnitudes of hazards threatening specific sites or regions. New statistical tools and approaches can efficiently incorporate geologic information into frequency assessments. These tools are most developed for riverine flood hazards, but are to some degree transferable to other episodic natural phenomena such as tsunamis and storm surges.