Comment on J.U. Klugel's 'Problems in the application of the SSHAC probability method for assessing earthquake hazards at Swiss nuclear power plants', in Engineering Geology, vol. 78, pp. 285-307

摘要

The SSHAC method relies on expert opinion as a central element of its methodology. The experts profess to refrain from presenting their results as a substitute for actual field data but rather to use only physics, sound theoretical and empirical models, plus reliable data. Such expectations are unrealistic. Probabilistic predictions cannot be better than the available data. Deterministic procedures are preferable insofar as they strive to be based on models that contain fewer sources of uncertainty.