Reply to the comment on J.U. Klugel's: 'Problems in the application of the SSHAC probability method for assessing earthquake hazards at Swiss nuclear power plants,' in Engineering Geology, vol. 78, pp. 285-307 by Lomnitz, by J.U. Klugel

摘要

In his discussion paper on Klugel (2005a), Prof. Lomnitz provides a set of interesting points arguing that PSHA as practiced is not a scientific procedure. Although using different terms, the position reflected by Prof. Lomnitz is very close to the arguments which are used by Klugel (2005a) as a response to the discussion paper provided by Budnitz et al. (2005). The key problems in the use of the SSHAC-methodology (SSHAC, 1997) are: The deviation from the principles of a rational consensus especially from the principle of empirical control (Cooke, 1991; Klugel, 2005b). The belief in model uncertainties and in the capability of assessing epistemic uncertainties by comparing different models. The belief in bias free estimates of experts.