Probability Based Design (Phase 4) Synthesis of the Reliability Thrust Area

摘要

One of the goals of the Ship Structure Committee (SSC) is to improve the safetyand integrity of marine structures, implemented through a strategy of sponsorship of research projects concerned with structural reliability engineering. This report reviews and critiques nine reports, assesses the objectives of the reliability thrust area, appraises success in realizing these objectives, and develops recommendations to provide guidance to the future direction of SSC efforts. The quality of the work as reported is good in parts. However, many questions can be asked regarding the assumptions made in the reports and the absence of careful checking of model accuracy. None of the reports could be graded as having successfully achieved their objectives. Consequently, they do not appear to provide an appropriate basis for the SSC to properly achieve a goal to develop a probability-based design approach for ship structures. There does not appear to be any opportunity to careful reflection upon the models adopted and the methodologies pursued. Because the practice in some of the technologies is not well established, there will be a variety of approaches available. Thus, any chosen set of models and methodologies will be consultant dependent. If the goal is to develop a probability-based approach to ship design, then the models and the methodologies adopted must reflect widespread consensus among the industry and be independent of who does the work.