Long-Term Global Demographic Trends: Reshaping the Geopolitical Landscape.

摘要

This paper identifies the factors that will be most important in shaping the worldwide demographic landscape in 2020 and beyond. It examines how societies are coping with the broad range of demographic challenges and assesses what conditions may be key to transforming demographic trends into security issues of interest to the United States. Global demographic trends will have far-reaching consequences for the key elements of national power: economic, military, and political within the larger global community. Allies and rivals alike will cope differently--some better than others. Reforms require advance notice and gradual implementation that, given the immediacy of many of the world's demographic challenges, leaves no room for complacency.