Summary of Commentary on Current Economic Conditions by Federal Reserve District, July 2002

摘要

District reports suggest that the economy expanded modestly in recent weeks, with an uneven performance across sectors. Boston, New York, Atlanta, and Dallas noted some tapering off in economic growth, while Cleveland and St. Louis indicated some improvement. Reports from the rest of the Districts point to continued moderate growth. Overall, prices of finished goods and services remained stable, though there were scattered reports of price pressures. Retail sales were mixed, with four Districts indicating some weakening, but five reporting a pickup, partly weather-related. Retail inventories were said to be in good shape, and many retailers expressed optimism about the near-term sales outlook. Vehicle sales were seen as weak in June but were boosted by incentive programs in early July. Manufacturing activity, though mixed across Districts and industries, appears to have improved, on balance. Labor markets were characterized as slack but relatively stable in most Districts; New York and Kansas City indicated some softening, but Richmond noted modest improvement. The pace of wage increases generally remained subdued, but many Districts noted continued escalation of non-wage benefit costs, most notably health insurance. Prices of raw materials were generally stable, though prices of steel, plastics, and lumber have risen noticeably. Prices of finished goods and services were generally flat.