U.S.-China Trade, 1989-2003. Impact on Jobs and Industries, Nationally and State-by-State. Working Paper

摘要

The rise in the United States trade deficit with China between 1989 and 2003 caused the displacement of production that supported 1.5 million U.S. jobs. Some of those jobs were related to production or services that ceased or moved elsewhere; others are jobs in supplying industries. These jobs reflect the effect on labor demand in lost job opportunities in an economy with a worsening balance between exports and imports. Most of those lost opportunities were in the high-wage and job-hemorrhaging manufacturing sector. The number of job opportunities lost each year grew rapidly during the 1990s, and accelerated after China entered the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2001. The loss of these potential jobs is just the most visible tip of Chinas impact on the U.S. economy. During the 14-year period covered by this study, there has been a significant shift in the kinds of industries suffering job displacement, a shift that runs counter to initial expectations. Where the largest impact was once felt in labor-intensive, lower-tech manufacturing industries such as apparel and shoes, the fastest growth in job displacement is now occurring in highly skilled and advanced technology areas once considered relatively immune, such as electronics, computers, and communications equipment.