Can a Leopard Change its Spots. Continuity and Change in Criminal Offending Patters among Three Samples of Series Chronic Offenders

摘要

One of the foremost controversies in contemporary theoretical criminology concerns how to simultaneously explain the existence of both continuity and discontinuity in patterns of criminal behavior over time. Three broad theoretical paradigms have been used to explain both continuity (stability) aild discontinuity (change): population heterogeneity, state dependence, and dual taxonomy theories. The main dispute among these contrasting theoretical paradigms centers largely on predicted differences regarding the degree to which criminal propensity is stable/unstable across the life course. This study examines three key questions concerning patterns of continuity and discontinuity across the life courses of serious youthful offenders: (1) how stable are individual differences in the propensity to commit criminal acts across the life course; (2) are there two (or more) discrete groups of offenders with distinct age-crime curves; and (3) is criminal activity of adjacent ages causally related, after controlling for persistent individual differences in the propensity to offend. Three large data sets of serious youthful offenders released from the California Youth Authority were used in this study.