Folsomhetsberengninger for Persontransport Basert pa Grunnprognosene for NTP 2010-2019 (Sensitivity Analysis of Travel Demand Forecasts in the Norwegian National Transport Plan 2010-2019)

摘要

This report contains sensitivity analysis of the base forecast for 2020 and an evaluation of several different future scenarios regarding traffic volume, passenger kilometers and CO2 emissions. These calculations suggest that the CO2 emissions from passenger transport will be reduced by approximately 6 percent in 2020 compared to 2006, although the transport volume will increase during the period. This reduction is caused by vehicle efficiency improvements. To achieve the objective for CO2 emission reduction presented in the Government's White Paper No. 34, policy measures equivalent to doubling the price of fuel are required. When reducing public transport fares, some traveler will switch from private cars to public transport, but others will switch from walking and cycling to public transport, and the total demand will increase. Hence, reducing public transport fares can only result in a small reduction in CO2 emissions.