Climatology and Reanalysis: A Case Study to Demonstrate Important Tools in the Forecast Process

摘要

On 17 September 2006, an upper low produced up to 3 inches of snowfall across a portion of the Glasgow, Montana County Warning Area (CWA), which is advisory criteria snowfall. The National Weather Service (NWS) office in Glasgow issues advisories when 2 to 5 inches of snowfall are expected during a 12 hour period. Warnings are issued for 6 inches or more of snowfall during a 12 hour period, or 8 inches in 24 hours. However, during the September 2006 event guidance indicated that as much as 6 inches of snow was possible. Is there any information a forecaster can use to help in the forecast decision making process for early season events. Forecasters can use climatology and analogs to help in the decision making process.