Empirical Bayes Shrinkage Estimates of State Food Stamp Program Participation Rates in 2003-2005 for All Eligible People and the Working Poor; Final rept

摘要

The Food Stamp Program (FSP) is a central component of American policy to alleviate hunger and poverty. The programs main purpose is to permit low-income households to obtain a more nutritious diet by increasing their purchasing power (Food Stamp Act of 1977, as amended). The FSP is the largest of the domestic food and nutrition assistance programs administered by the U.S. Department of Agricultures Food and Nutrition Service. During fiscal year 2007, the program served 26 million people in an average month at a total annual cost of over $30 billion in benefits. The average monthly FSP benefit was about $214 per household. This report presents estimates that, for each state, measure the need for the FSP and the programs effectiveness in each of the three years from 2003 to 2005. The estimated numbers of people eligible for the FSP measure the need for the program. The estimated FSP participation rates measure, state by state, the programs performance in reaching its target population. In addition to the participation rates that pertain to all eligible people, we derived estimates of participation rates for the working poor, that is, people who were eligible for the FSP and lived in households in which someone earned income from a job. The estimates for all eligible people and for the working poor were derived jointly using empirical Bayes shrinkage estimation methods and data from the Current Population Survey, the decennial census, and administrative records. The shrinkage estimator that was used averaged sample estimates of participation rates in each state with predictions from a regression model. The predictions were based on observed indicators of socioeconomic conditions in the states, such as the percentage of the total state population receiving FSP benefits. The shrinkage estimates derived are substantially more precise than direct sample estimates from the Current Population Survey or the Survey of Income and Program Participation, the best sources of current data on household incomes used to model program eligibility. Shrinkage estimators improve precision by borrowing strength, that is, by using data for multiple years from all the states to derive each states estimates for a given year and by using not only sample survey data but also census and administrative data. This report describes our shrinkage estimator in detail.