Annual Energy Outlook 2009 with Projections to 2030

摘要

The Annual Energy Outlook 2009 (AEO2009), prepared by the Energy Information Administration (EIA), presents long-term projections of energy supply, demand, and prices through 2030, based on results from EIAs National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). EIA published an early release version of the AEO2009 reference case in December 2008. The report begins with an Executive Summary that highlights key aspects of the projections. It is followed by a Legislation and Regulations section that discusses evolving legislation and regulatory issues, including a summary of recently enacted legislation, such as the Energy Improvement and Extension Act of 2008 (EIEA2008). The next section, Issues in Focus, contains discussions of selected topics, including: the impacts of limitations on access to oil and natural gas resources on the Federal Outer Continental Shelf (OCS); the implications of uncertainty about capital costs for new electricity generating plants; and the result of extending the Federal renewable production tax credit (PTC). It also discusses the relationship between natural gas and oil prices and the basis of the world oil price and production trends in AEO2009. The Market Trends section summarizes the projections for energy markets. The analysis in AEO2009 focuses primarily on a reference case, low and high economic growth cases, and low and high oil price cases. Results from a number of other alternative cases also are presented, illustrating uncertainties associated with the reference case projections for energy demand, supply, and prices. Complete tables for the five primary cases are provided in Appendixes A through C. Major results from many of the alternative cases are provided in Appendix D.