2030年世界能源展望—基于全球能源展望报告的对比研究

摘要

This paper reviews and summarizes the latest reports of the World Energy Outlook from some institutions and the main outlook results are compared and analyzed. The results show that: Overall, the future global energy consumption will continue to grow, and the growth rate will decrease. In the supply side, the clean replacement will be the basic trend of global energy supply structure changes, but in 2030 the global fossil energy will still occupy high proportion, and the rapid development of renewable energy will occupy more than 20% of the market share.In the energy consumption side, transportation and residents and other sectors are the main energy consumption growth, energy substitution is the basic trend of terminal energy structure change. In the aspect of electricity, 2030 total electricity demand reached 39~45 trillion kWh, the average annual electricity demand growth of about 2.0%~2.9%. Different agencies on judgments of power structure are diverse, but all of them place high expectations on non-fossil energy.%本文梳理了一些机构最新发布的世界能源展望报告,并对主要结果进行了对比分析和总结.结果表明:在总量方面,未来全球能源消费总量将持续增长,但增速趋缓;在能源供应侧,清洁替代将是全球能源供应结构变化的基本趋势,非化石能源占比达到20%以上,但2030年全球化石能源仍占较高比重;在能源消费侧,交通和居民及其它部门是能源消费增长的主体,电能替代是终端能源结构变化的基本趋势;在电力方面,2030年电力需求总量达到39~45万亿k W h,年均电力需求增速约为2.0%~2.9%,不同机构对未来电源结构的判断差异较大,但都对非化石能源发电寄以厚望.