Virginia Economic Indicators, Volume 41, Number 2. Second Quarter Data, Third Quarter Preliminary Analysis, and Latest 2009-2011 Projections

摘要

The final First Quarter 2009 Gross Domestic Product figures revealed the U.S. economy was still in a state of free fall with GDP dropping 5.5 percent, only slightly better than the 6.3 percent GDP decrease in the final quarter of 2008. The current recession started its twentieth month July 1, 2009, and is already the longest recession since the Great Depression of the 1930s. It is, however, not yet as bad as the 1981-82 recession when unemployment peaked at 10.8 percent in the U.S. and 8.4 percent in Virginia, although some industries like construction, manufacturing, motor vehicles, and finance have been devastated. The fallout from the Chrysler and General Motors bankruptcies will probably add one additional quarter to the length of the recession. The current situation is the stimulus monies are starting to create jobs, but they are being negated by fallout from the motor company bankruptcies. The economy will likely deteriorate further in second and possibly third quarters 2009 before a turnaround in GDP in the fourth quarter. Unemployment will probably peak in the first half of 2010 in the low 10 percent range.