Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook, March 2011: Red Meat Exports At Record Levels in 2011

摘要

This monthly report, presented in a newsletter format, provides current intelligence and forecasts the effects of changing conditions in the U.S. livestock, dairy, and poultry sectors. Topics include current production, consumption, trade, prices received, and more. Periodically, special reports on specific commodity issues also are released in this series. Dry conditions in the Southern United States have reduced the March runs of feeder cattle from wheat pasture this year, moving some feeder cattle into feedlots earlier than is typical and shifting some cattle into summer grazing programs. Tightness of cattle inventories at all levels is increasing the volatility in cattle and beef prices. U.S. beef exports for 2011 are forecast at 2.43 billion pounds and beef imports are forecast at 2.3 billion pounds, making the U.S. a net exporter of beef again in 2011, and by a larger margin. Cattle imports from Mexico thus far in the year have been particularly strong; however, total cattle imports for 2011 are forecast lower year-over-year. Pork prices are year-over-year higher, despite increased pork production in January-February. Strong pork and hog prices are most likely largely attributable to increased consumer demand. Broiler meat production rose notably in January, but broiler hatchery numbers point to less growth in production in the coming months. Broiler production for 2011 is estimated to be higher than the previous year through the first half of the year. January broiler and turkey shipments were both up from last year. Broiler shipments totaled 462.5 million pounds, an increase of less than 1 percent from January 2010 shipments. Turkey shipments totaled 47.6 million pounds, a 47-percent jump from a year earlier. Lamb and mutton production are seeing their lowest levels on record. First-quarter 2011 lamb and mutton production are forecast at 37 million pounds, down 14 percent from the same period in 2010. Milk production is forecast to expand this year as the number of cows increases; milk per cow is also forecast to increase, albeit at a slower pace in 2011.