Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook, September 2010: Red Meat Prices into 2011 Supported by Lower Supplies and Export Momentum

摘要

This monthly report, presented in a newsletter format, provides current intelligence and forecasts the effects of changing conditions in the U.S. livestock, dairy, and poultry sectors. Topics include current production, consumption, trade, prices received, and more. Periodically, special reports on specific commodity issues also are released in this series. Steer and heifer and cow slaughter rates continue at or ahead of rates last year, but lower dressed weights have yielded lower beef production. Prices continue to show strength. In 2010, exports of U.S. beef are forecast to increase 17 percent year-over-year, totaling 2.26 billion pounds. Beef exports through July were nearly 17 percent higher year-over-year. Beef imports for 2010 are forecast at 2.54 billion pounds and with tighter beef supplies in 2011 are forecast to increase 8 percent, to 2.75 billion pounds. Through July, beef imports were 12 percent below year-earlier levels and cattle imports nearly 17 percent higher year-over-year. For the balance of 2010, hog prices are expected to be supported by lower pork supplies and respectable consumer demand for pork products. The U.S. broiler meat production forecast for third- and fourth-quarter 2010 were decreased a total of 125 million pounds from last month to 9.4 billion pounds in the third quarter and 9.1 billion pounds in the fourth quarter. Broiler shipments declined from last years volume, while turkey shipments rose sharply. Broiler exports totaled 520.7 million pounds, a 7.1-percent drop. Turkey exports totaled 52.7 million pounds, an increase of 10.2-percent from a year ago. Demand, both foreign and domestic, continues to recover but price increases will be modest. Both cow numbers and production per cow are expected to rise, increasing milk production next year. Butter prices should moderate next year due to higher milk production.