Predicting the Market Potential of Plug-In Electric Vehicles Using Multiday GPS Data

摘要

Detailed GPS data for a years worth of travel by 255 households from the Seattle area were used to investigate how plug-in electric vehicle types may affect adoption rates and use levels. The results suggest that a battery-electric vehicle (BEV) with 100 miles of range should meet the needs of 50% of one-vehicle households and 80% of multiple-vehicle households, if those households fully charge their BEVs just once a day and are willing to use a different vehicle or mode of transport just 4 days a year or less (to serve daily travel distances above 100 miles). Moreover, the average one-vehicle household in the Seattle region relies on its vehicle for 23 miles per day and should be able to electrify close to 80% of its miles using a plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) with 40-mile all-electric-range. Households owning two or more vehicles can electrify 50 to 70% of their household miles using a PHEV40, depending on how they assign the vehicle across their drivers each day. Cost comparisons between the average single-vehicle household owning a Chevrolet Cruze (regular gasoline vehicle) versus a Chevrolet Volt PHEV suggest that when gas prices are $3.50 per gallon and electricity rates at the U.S. average of 11.2 ct per kWh, the Volt will save the household $535 per year in operating costs. Similarly, the Toyota Prius PHEV, when compared to the Toyota Corolla, will provide an annual savings of $538 per year.