Methodologies to Estimate the Economic Impacts of Disruptions to the Goods Movement System. National Cooperative Highway Research Program (NCHRP) Report 732.

摘要

This report describes the impacts of bottlenecks and interruptions to the flow of goods through the nations major freight corridors and intermodal connectors, the dynamics of that flow in response to disruptions, and the full economic impact on public and private entities beyond just the critical infrastructure and the carriers that depend on that flow. The report developed two approaches to analyzing the economic impacts: (1) a high-level methodology (that provides the user with rules of thumb that can be used to estimate the likely economic costs associated with any type of disruption) based on the concept that the economic impact of any disruption would depend primarily on the commodity characteristics, the extent and nature of the disruption, and the costs associated with different elements of the cost structure; and (2) a more detailed methodology that depends on a much higher level of detail and more sophisticated analysis of the supply chain dynamic. This research will help to increase public understanding of the freight transportation system and improve the nations ability to rapidly reconfigure the goods movement system to minimize disruptions.