Multicriteria highway programming incorporating risk and uncertainty: A methodology for highway asset management system.

摘要

Highway asset management is a systematic process that aims to preserve, expand, and operate highway assets in the most cost-effective manner. It is an analytical tool that facilitates organized, logical, and integrated decision-making in asset management practice. This dissertation proposes a methodology for the development of a highway asset management system that addresses asset valuation, performance modeling, marginal benefit analysis, and multicriteria decision-making, including tradeoff analysis as well as project selection and programming. While most existing management systems deal with individual physical highway assets or system usage only under certainty or risk, this research focuses on the management of an entire highway network that also incorporates tradeoff decisions involving uncertainty. Systemwide multi-attribute utility functions and standardized focus gain-over-loss ratio functions based on utility theory and Shackle's model, respectively, are calibrated using data collected through a series of questionnaire surveys. A system optimization model, along with a solution algorithm, is formulated to facilitate project selection and programming. A Highway Asset Management System software program is developed and utilized in a case study for systemwide project selection based on information for candidate projects proposed for state highway programming in Indiana during 1998--2001. For all given years and regardless of the tradeoff decision under certainty, risk, or uncertainty, the software outputs match with the results of actual highway programming at least 85 percent of the time. The case study results validate the proposed methodology and research findings and also reveal the advantages of using the algorithm for overall highway asset management practice.