The Anticipated Decision Influence Period in Real Time Reservoir Operation

摘要

A reservoir is a physical mechanism that provides a potential to turn an unreliable source of water into a dependable water supply system. A set of rules and the reservoir operator's skill and experience are supposed to utilize the potential of the reservoir such that the predetermined objectives of the system are carried out in the most beneficial way. The rules for operation should ideally trade off immediate benefits against future benefits to be expected such that both the needed assurance of water and/or power is provided for and the potential of the reservoir is utilized most efficiently. Present practice in reservoir operation provides the assurance implicitly by means of the Critical Period, but has not explicit mechanism to improve the efficiency of operation. In order to be able to employ a mechanism to trade off immediate benefits agaist expected future benefits, a time frame over which the total benefits intermediate decisions and their associated risks can be explicitly evaluated has to be recognized. This dissertation presents a logic for such a time frame, called the Anticipated Decision Influence Period, ADIP. Within this context an analysis and discussing of responsive and flexible reservoir operation rules to guide the operator in the decision-making process.