Papers Commissioned as Inputs to Annual Science and Technology Report (ASTR) (2nd). Volume V. Risk Assessment and Catastrophe Management Policies: The Role of Science and Technology

摘要

Most risk problems are difficult to analyze using formal methods: such techniques as 'risk--benefit analysis' have trouble dealing with scientific uncertainties over risks, costs, and benefits, and they find it hard to factor in human error, abuse of technology, and deeply uncertain, novel hazards. Perhaps worse, formal analyses have trouble dealing with amenities and intangibles, such as the price of human life. It is tempting but elusive to define 'acceptable' levels of risk. If our goal as a privileged and enlightened society is to minimize and share risks in efficient and equitable fashion, we must not only focus on individual hazards but on the broad array of threats by which we are confronted. This would mean evaluating 'health' along with 'safety', accidents along with chronic diseases and natural catastrophes. Broadscale review is desirable but never easy.