A Two Stage Model for the Determination of Risk for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease

摘要

Quantitative estimates for the risk of developing chronic obstructive lung disease (COLD) were derived from existing cross-sectional and longitudinal epidemiologic data. Initial estimates were based on part of the cross-sectional data and validated on the remainder of the cross-sectional data. Using the longitudinal data, three estimates were improved to provide estimates of the six-year and 12-year risk of developing COLD. The risk estimates were derived using a logistic analysis program and were presented in a tabular form suitable for use by physicians caring for patients. The estimated risk for developing COLD was found to depend on the subject's sex, age group, smoking history and pulmonary function at the start of the period of risk, as well as the length of risk period (six or twelve years). Other putative risk factors were examined and found not to contribute significantly to these predictions offered by the factors already mentioned. For purposes of risk prediction, the smoking history consisting of the current consumption of cigarettes and duration of smoking appeared more useful than the conventional single number 'pack years.'