Apartheid, the Job Ladder, and the Evolutionary Hypothesis: Empirical Evidence from South African Manufacturing, 1960-77

摘要

This discussion paper explores various concepts of the South African 'evolutionary hypothesis' whereby non-white economic opportunities are perceived as rising over time as a result of innate market forces. It then develops in detail one concept, namely, the hypothesis that the scarcity of white labor induces a gradual switchover of jobs to non-whites, enabling the latter to move up the job ladder. Employment, wage, and output data from the South African manufacturing sector over 1960-77 are studied. The evidence is largely consistent with the switchover hypothesis, although only 10% of the growth of non-white employment in manufacturing can be attributed to switchovers of jobs from whites to non-whites. For every non-white job gained by switchover, 12 were gained from output expansion (and 3 lost through productivity improvements). Analysis of wage increases by race suggests that the labor market for non-whites is gradually unifying and wage differentials among sectors are lessening. Wage changes for whites, on the other hand, seem to be governed mainly by sector-specific forces. (Author abstract, modified)