Some Basic Elements of Thunderstorm Forecasting

摘要

This paper describes several basic elements important to forecasting significant convection. Significant convection includes severe thunderstorms, but also encompasses non-severe thunderstorms. The four parameters needed for the occurrence of significant convection are discussed. These are the presence of instability or a destabilization mechanism, abundant low-level moisture, upper level divergence, and a low-level boundary to force the thunderstorms into existence. The basic concept of a boundary is discussed and several types of boundaries are described. The purpose of mesoanalysis of surface data is to identify these boundaries. It was also realized that once a boundary has been identified, it is still not easy to say when or if the boundary will produce convection.