Unemployment and Motor Vehicle Accidents in Michigan

摘要

The economic recession has been suggested as a probable cause of the significant decline in traffic casualties in Michigan in the early 1980s. The present study was designed to identify the underlying relationship between changes in economic conditions, as reflected in the rate of unemployment, and motor vehicle crash involvement. The potentially intervening influence of vehicle miles traveled was also examined. ARIMA and dynamic regression time-series modeling procedures were used to assess the direction, magnitude, and lag structure of the relationships. Results revealed that an increase in unemployment is related to a simultaneous decrease in crash involvement, followed by an increase in crash involvement one month later. Vehicle miles traveled was not a significant intervening influence between unemployment and crash involvement. The net effect of an increase in unemployment is a decrease in crash involvement. However, the magnitude of the effect is quite small, accounting for only a small portion of the total decline in traffic casualties in recent years.