Improved Methods for Long-Range Forecasting of Mineral Demands

摘要

The long-term dynamics of intensity of use of a mineral material across time as well as the economic theory of derived demand are accommodated by representing per capita demand by an 'extensive' translog function of per capita income, own price, substitute price, and total factor productivity. By restricting the general model to two variables, per capita demand and per capita income, it can be shown mathematically to be identical under a transformation to a lognormal intensity of use model of the Malenbaum variety when intensity of use is multiplied by per capita income. This important result resolves economic theory and the empirical relations identified by Malenbaum.