Sources of Change in the Future Security Environment: A Paper by the Future Security Environment Working Group, Submitted to the Commission on Integrated Long-Term Strategy

摘要

In the next two decades the security environment facing the United States will change as a result of both broad economic, demographic, and military trends that are already taking shape, and specific shocks and discontinuities that, at present, can be recognized only as possibilities. The report concentrates on 'external' developments and, in particular, on the ways in which the future security environment may be most different from that of the present. The trends will set the parameters for defense planning in ways fairly easy to understand. The discontinuities, although by nature unpredictable, demand consideration as well. The report suggests some possibilities that planners must consider (for example, use of nuclear weapons in the Third World), if only to test the robustness of possible strategies. The report concludes by suggesting issues and questions deserving of further consideration and study by defense planners.