Research Planning for Food Safety: A Value-of-Information Approach

摘要

The report (1) presents several methods for ranking specific research projects according to the value of the information they will provide; and (2) shows how the methods can be applied, using as case studies the regulation of dichloromethane (DCM), which is used to decaffeinate coffee, and the control of aflatoxin, a naturally occurring fungus that can contaminate grains and peanuts. The first option for comparing the merits of research projects is a multiattribute approach, which ranks a project according to the amount of information it will produce, the resources needed to undertake it, the extent to which it relies on the results of other research under consideration, and other factors. The second option is the probability modeling approach, which uses detailed models and measures the expected value of information in economic or health terms.