Cost characteristics of tilt-rotor, conventional air and high speed rail short-haul intercity passenger service

摘要

The cost analysis done to support an assessment of the potential for a small tilt-rotor aircraft to operate in short-haul intercity passenger service is described in detail. Anticipated costs of tilt-rotor air service were compared to the costs of two alternatives: conventional air and high speed rail (HSR). Costs were developed for corridor service, varying key market characteristics including distance, passenger volumes, and minimum frequency standards. The resulting cost vs output information can then be used to compare modal costs for essentially identical service quality and passenger volume or for different service levels and volumes for each mode, as appropriate. Extensive sensitivity analyses are performed. The cost-output features of these technologies are compared. Tilt-rotor is very attractive compared to HSR in terms of costs over the entire range of volume. It also has costs not dramatically different from conventional air, but tilt-rotor costs are generally higher. Thus some of its other advantages, such as the VTOL capability, must offset the cost disadvantage for it to be a preferred or competitive mode in any given market. These issues are addressed in the companion report which considers strategies for tilt-rotor development in commercial air service.