Modeling short-haul intercity travel behavior and impacts: The feasibility of high-speed rail infrastructure.

摘要

The United States of America (US) is currently experiencing a combination of an aging infrastructure, budget constraints and a growing population. These constraints are particularly influential on short-haul intercity travel. Short-haul intercity travel modes mainly consist of car, passenger rail, express rail, air and bus travel. The purpose of this research is to investigate short-haul intercity travel impacts and passengers' mode choice behaviors in the northeast corridor of the US, as well as to understand the feasibility of high-speed rail implementations.;This research concentrates on the trips between Boston and New York and Boston and Washington D.C. Both aggregate and disaggregate data are utilized in this research. For the aggregate data, the researcher utilized a multiple linear regression model to analyze ridership and influential variables to ridership. For the disaggregate data, the researcher utilized the multinomial logit model, alternative-specific conditional logit model, nested logit model and the rank-ordered logit model. Utilizing the combination of aggregate and disaggregate data provided a comprehensive outlook on short-haul intercity travel behaviors and impacts, and it also assisted with recommendations for infrastructural improvements that will consider policy and operational adjustments as well. The findings of this research show that modest infrastructural improvements to high-speed rail would further improve the competitiveness of short-haul intercity travel in the northeast corridor, amongst car, passenger rail, air and bus.