Crisis prevention centers as confidence building measures: Suggestions for Northeast Asia

摘要

Relationships between countries generally exist somewhere in the grey area between war and peace. Crisis prevention activities are particularly important and should have two goals: stabilizing tense situations that could push countries toward war, and supporting or reinforcing efforts to move countries toward peace. A Crisis Prevention Center (CPC) should facilitate efforts to achieve these goals. Its functions can be grouped into three broad, inter-related categories: establishing and facilitating communication among participating countries; supporting negotiations and consensus-building on regional security issues; and supporting implementation of agreed confidence and security building measures. Technology will play a critical role in a CPC. First, technology is required to establishing communication systems and to provide the means for organizing and analyzing this information. Second, technically-based cooperative monitoring can provide an objective source of information on mutually agreed issues. In addition, technology can be a neutral subject of interaction and collaboration between technical communities from different countries. Establishing a CPC in Northeast Asia does not require the existence of an Asian security regime. Potential first steps for such a CPC should include establishing communication channels and a dedicated communications center in each country, together with an agreement to use the system as a (open quotes)Hot Line(close quotes) in bilateral and multilateral emergency situations. A central CPC could also be established as a regional communications hub. The central CPC could coordinate a number of functions aimed at stabilizing regional tensions and supporting confidence building activities, perhaps initially in an unofficial capacity. Specific recommendations for confidence building measures are discussed.