Demonstration Integrated Knowledge-Based System for Estimating Human Error211 Probabilities

摘要

Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) is currently comprised of at least 40 different211u001emethods that are used to analyze, predict, and evaluate human performance in 211u001eprobabilistic terms. Systematic HRAs allow analysts to examine human-machine 211u001erelationships, identify error-likely situations, and provide estimates of 211u001erelative frequencies for human errors on critical tasks, highlighting the most 211u001ebeneficial areas for system improvements. Unfortunately, each of HRA's methods 211u001ehas a different philosophical approach, thereby producing estimates of human 211u001eerror probabilities (HEPs) that area better or worse match to the error likely 211u001esituation of interest. Poor selection of methodology, or the improper application 211u001eof techniques can produce invalid HEP estimates, where that erroneous estimation 211u001eof potential human failure could have potentially severe consequences in terms of 211u001ethe estimated occurrence of injury, death, and/or property damage.