Guidebook for Analysis of State-Level Economic Impacts of an Energy Shortfall

摘要

This guidebook is designed to assist state policymakers in estimating the economic impacts of an energy supply shortfall. The guidebook does not contain state specific information, but outlines general procedures that can be tailored to specific state needs. Chapter 1 provides a user's guide to the book as well as cautions concerning its use and potential accuracy. The second chapter describes one general procedure for analyzing the possible economic impacts of an energy supply shortfall. The third chapter provides specific guidelines for constructing a simple model or first-order approximation of some of the immediate economic impacts of an energy supply shortfall. Chapter 4 examines several different petroleum supply shortfall scenarios comparing a base case with a 7% shortfall and a 14% shortfall. Then the analysis compares a shortfall affecting all sectors of the economy with one affecting private transportation alone. Thirdly, the chapter studies a shortfall affecting one state more severely than the rest of the nation. Each of those scenarios considers first-year and longer-term impacts. Finally, Chapter 4 analyzes the impact of restricting natural gas hook-ups for residential customers. The appendices provide further information on data sources, a survey of state-level models, and a detailed description of the state-level econometric model. (ERA citation 06:030702)