Analyzing trigger levels for future test ban treaties.

摘要

Future test ban treaties may include the idea of triggers: test yields above which the country conducting a test must give the other side prior notice. The treaty would then allow the other side to inspect the test site or install additional yield measurement devices (e.g., CORRTEX). Triggers should help both sides verify treaty compliance when they conduct tests near the treaty threshold, a yield above which both sides are prohibited from testing. By using more accurate measurement systems at yields near the threshold, the country verifying compliance can decrease its uncertainty about the test yield. We can model the effect of triggers at various levels similar to the levels of analysis considered in the compliance evaluation report (''Decision Framework for Evaluating Compliance with the Threshold Test Ban Treaty'' by B.R. Judd, L.W. Younker, W.J. Hannon, R.S. Strait, P.C. Meagher, and A. Sicherman, UCRL-53830, August 1988). At lower levels, the analysis is simple but does not include all the issues relevant to choosing a trigger level. Higher levels of the analysis incorporate these issues, at the cost of additional complexity and required data. This memorandum considers several models of trigger levels to show what we can learn by incorporating additional issues into the analysis. 60 figs.